India’s monsoon rains seen at average levels in 2018: Skymet

  • The country is likely to witness a “normal” southwest monsoon, private weather forecasting agency Skymet said in its forecast on 4 Apr. However, the southern peninsula and major portions of northeast India are likely to witness “below normal” rainfall this season, it said in a statement.
  • “India is most likely to witness normal annual Monsoon rains at 100% of the Long Period Average (LPA),” it said.
  • The monsoon is considered ‘normal’ if the average rainfall is between 96-104% of LPA. Anything less than 90% of LPA is termed a “deficient” monsoon, and 90-96% of LPA is considered “below normal”.
  • There is only 20% chance of above normal monsoon rains, 20% chance of below normal rains and no chance of a drought, Skymet said.
  • Jun 18 would record excess rainfall, Jul 18 is likely to be normal and Aug 18 below normal, it added. Rainfall activity will pick up again in Sep 18.
  • The four-month monsoon season gives about 70% of the country’s rainfall.

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