Economists cut Singapore’s 2024 growth forecast on global slowdown fears: MAS survey

  • Private-sector economists lowered their 2024 growth expectations for export-driven Singapore mainly because of the heightened risk of a global economic slowdown.
  • Eighty-one per cent of the 25 economists who responded to the MAS survey sent out in November ranked spill overs from an external growth slowdown as the top downside risk to the outlook of Singapore’s economy.
  • The respondents also flagged geopolitical tensions, inflationary pressures, and spill overs from weaker growth in China – Singapore’s top trading partner – as other risks to the domestic growth outlook.
  • Better-than-expected external growth was the most frequently cited upside risk to Singapore’s outlook, identified by 60% of respondents. Respondents also flagged upside risks from the tech cycle recovery and more robust growth in China, with the former being ranked as the top upside risk.
  • Monetary Policy in Singapore None of the respondents expect changes to the slope, width, and level of the S$NEER Policy Band in the upcoming January 2024 review. Meanwhile, 13% and 22% of respondents anticipate a reduction in the slope of the S$NEER policy band in April and July next year, respectively. For the October 2024 review, 18% of respondents anticipate a reduction in the slope of the S$NEER policy band.

External Link :

https://www.straitstimes.com/business/economy/economists-cut-singapore-s-2024-growth-forecast-on-global-slowdown-fears-mas-survey

https://www.mas.gov.sg/-/media/mas-media-library/monetary-policy/mas-survey-of-professional-forecasters/2023/survey-writeup-dec-2023-web.pdf

13-Dec-2023