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Highlights from the CAA Weekly Table:
Regional dynamics could yield more trade synergies as CPTPP flourishes
- Despite growing protectionism and US-China frictions undermining multilateralism, some international cooperation is still progressing, and will benefit Asian economies. China and the UK are in varying stages of negotiations to join the Comprehensive & Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership. This could spur other countries such as South Korea and Thailand to decide soon on whether to formally apply to join the trade pact.
Asian economies: Northeast Asians doing better than others
- China’s economy still vibrant: Manufacturing slowed due to supply-side disruptions but services activity continued to be vigorous. While input prices are rising, there has been little pass-through to overall consumer inflation. Expect the Chinese Yuan to strengthen further.
- South Korean economic activity is firming, spurred by exports as well as domestic demand. The central bank is hinting at a rate hike but fiscal spending is likely to be stepped up.
- In India, the economy has slowed because of the previous surge in infections but with the pandemic now easing, activity is regaining momentum.
- Indonesia is in better shape, with the PMI at a record level. Contrary to some media reports, the expected surge in infections is not materializing.
Asian political risks:
- Jockeying for position for the 2024 presidential elections has started: That will help President Jokowi delay the point at which he becomes a lame duck, allowing him to push through reforms – where he has the will to pursue them.
- In the Philippines, next year’s presidential elections are triggering increased bickering in the political class: As President Duterte’s term approaches its end, political allies are going their separate ways, some to position themselves for a presidential run. An example is Manny Pacquiao, once a loyal backer of the President, who is now discreetly critiquing some of the administration’s actions.
Global capital spending renaissance to boost Asian exports – 7 reasons
- There is huge pent-up demand for capital spending which we believe will be released soon.
- Regime shifts in fiscal, monetary and industrial policies will reduce risks for businesses while enhancing potential returns from capacity expansions.
- The pandemic has forced many changes in working and business practices which require additional investment.
- There are multiple technological revolutions that will require huge new investments. The impact of advances in computing power married to enhanced communications is already well established. But there are also game-changing innovations elsewhere – renewable energy, bio-medical advances, new materials and advanced manufacturing processes.
- De-carbonising the world economy will also require substantial new spending.
- We also are expecting a new wave of infrastructure spending.
US-China contestation deepens, spelling difficulties for Asia; Political after-shocks from Covid-19 loom large
Highlights from the CAA Weekly Table:
Asian economies face more challenges to growth as COVID infections and inflationary pressures rise. Policy is constrained but as infections peak and global demand improves, these economies are likely to see a rebound.
- China: Rising input prices are depressing margins and the resulting output cuts in some sectors pose a modest risk to growth. The currency is likely to keep appreciating gradually.
- India: The pandemic is easing, raising hopes for the recovery to regain momentum. However, we see the Rupee’s rise as unsustainable.
- Indonesia’s infrastructure fund is well-structured and should help boost infrastructure development particularly in the road sector which is a priority.
- Malaysia’s exports are surging, helping to support an economy reeling from a surging tide of COVID infections. However, the Philippines lacks Malaysia’s diversified export base and there has been little in the way of fiscal stimulus. Singapore’s strong momentum in the first quarter is likely to ease as manufacturing slows and the recovery in services may take longer to materialise given the recent reimposition of some restrictions on activity.
US-China contestation deepens, spelling difficulties for Asia
- After years of strategic advances in the Asia-Pacific region at the expense of the US, China is beginning to find itself on the backfoot. China’s responses to these setbacks are likely to produce a more troubled Indo-Pacific region.
- The US is mobilizing itself to compete with China with a revised set of defence spending priorities that target China. Strengthened alliances with Europe, Japan and South Korea together with a more accommodating India also boost the US position.
- China will not veer from its current approach, however. It will leverage off an expanded alliance with Russia and widen its carrot-and-stick approach to Asian countries, as well as to others. It is also likely to offer Asian countries a re-energised Belt & Road Initiative.
Political after-shocks from Covid-19 loom large
Given the mayhem it has caused, the pandemic is certain to produce longer term political consequences. The initial rally-around-the-flag support that incumbent leaders enjoyed has ended, giving way to deep popular discontent in several countries:
- As we reported previously, Malaysia is where the risk of a political backlash is greatest. IN the past week, the resentment against the political class has grown amid anger at the mishandling of the pandemic, suspicions of corruption and suggestions that the elites were given unfair advantages. The trust that has been broken will not be easily regained.
- Similarly, India’s Premier Modi and South Korea’s President Moon have seen their approval ratings fall sharply. Indonesia’s President Joko Widodo and Philippine President Duterte, however, have successfully maintained their popularity despite the ravages of the pandemic.
- Moon and Duterte have the fiscal space to step up fiscal stimulus and so could improve their political standing. Modi, however, is constrained, raising the fear that he may resort to beating the religious-nationalist drum to redeem himself with voters.