India: Rains to arrive in northeast by end-Jun 18 : IMD

  • The monsoon is likely to advance over northwest India this week after a brief hiatus in its movement. “Pre-monsoon thunderstorm activity is very likely to commence over parts of northwest India from 26 Jun 18.
  • Advance of southwest monsoon is very likely over parts of northwest India, including Delhi, during 29 Jun 18 and 1 Jul 18,” the India Meteorological Department (IMD) stated on 24 Jun 18.
  • The normal date for monsoon to arrive in Delhi is 29 Jun 18, while it covers the entire country around 15 Jul 18. The southwest monsoon saw a hiatus in its normal course of progression for about 12 days due to weak circulation pattern. This gap in advancement of monsoon has brought rainfall levels to below normal levels.
  • Countrywide rainfall remained 11% below normal since 1 Jun 18, with only south peninsula recording 25% above normal rainfall. Rainfall levels across the country remained 20% below normal on 24 Jun 18, though Central India saw a slight improvement, recording 9% above normal rainfall.
  • The Met department, however, remains optimistic for the coming two weeks, as monsoon showers are expected to cover central and northern parts of India.
  • Rainfall in these regions will be critical over the next few days as farmers prepare fields for planting. Rain in Jul 18 and Aug 18 will be most crucial for agriculture, and independent forecaster Skymet Weather and AccuWeather have already flagged concerns over patchy rainfall in these couple of months.

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