Vietnam seeks 6.5% growth through 2025 after missing current goal

  • Vietnam looks to propose a five-year economic plan targeting growth of 6.5% to 7% for 2021-25, aiming to boost per-capita GDP to USD4,700 from this year’s estimate of USD2,750.
  • The plan will be finalized when the Communist Party of Vietnam holds a convention in January, at which party members will confirm a new leadership line-up and an economic growth strategy for the next five years.
  • The proposal comes as Vietnam missed the targets in the 2016-20 plan.
  • “The average growth rate of the five years from 2016 to 2020 is estimated at about 5.8%,” falling short of the 6.5%-7% target, according to Dautu, a state media source under the influence of the planning ministry.
  • Vietnam’s GDP is estimated at USD269bn in 2020, up roughly 40% from USD193bn five years ago. Per-capita GDP is estimated at USD2,750, growing 30% over five years from USD2,109.
  • Tran Quoc Phuong, deputy minister of planning and investment, said during the work session that Vietnam has achieved many socioeconomic goals. But he acknowledged that four targets have not been met: GDP growth, GDP per capita, the rate of trained labor in the workforce and the unemployment rate in urban areas.
  • GDP growth covering 2016-19 averaged 6.8%, Phuong said. But Vietnam’s economy was hit hard by the coronavirus pandemic this year. While many neighboring countries have negative growth forecasts, Vietnam is expected to remain in positive territory with a rate of about 2%, Dautu reported. But the slowdown in 2020 reduced average GDP growth over the five years to 5.8%.
  • But Vietnam has failed to reach GDP growth targets for three consecutive five-year periods. The economy missed the targets of 7.5% to 8.0% for 2006-10 and 7.0% to 7.5% for 2011-15, delivering 7% and 5.9% growth during those periods, respectively.
  • The country achieved 7.51% growth for 2001-05, hitting its target of 7.5% to 8.0%.
  • The new five-year plan will be the eighth since the Communist Party adopted Doi Moi in 1986 — reforms aimed at achieving a socialist-oriented market economy.

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