The Philippines: OCTA: Metro Manila COVID-19 reproduction number at 4.69 from 6.16 peak amid glimmer of hope

  • Metro Manila’s COVID-19 reproduction number — a term which refers to the number of persons a COVID-19 positive individual can infect — has decreased to 4.69 in recent days, the OCTA Research Group said.
  • At the number’s peak earlier in Jan 22, the independent pandemic monitor said, one carrier of the disease could infect up to 6.16 people each on 2 Jan 22 until slowing down to its current number as of 8 Jan 22.
  • “A decreasing reproduction number indicates that the trend is slowing down. One way to think of this is a decreasing growth rate — cases are still rising but at a slower pace. In past surges, a peak is always preceded by a decreasing reproduction number,” OCTA fellow Guido David said in a tweet.
  • The reproduction number in the National Capital Region — where more than 50% of all tests being conducted have come out positive — has been higher than 5 since 30 Dec 21.
  • The Metro Manila Council of mayors, though, said it still saw no reason to place the Metro under the stricter Alert Level 4, citing relatively “stable” hospital utilization numbers.

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