The Philippine: IMF sees credit growth at 19% in 2017

  • The International Monetary Fund (IMF) sees credit growth accelerating in 2017, flagging possible risk of overheating if monetary authorities fail to put this in check.
  • IMF Philippine resident representative Yongzheng Yang said bank lending is seen growing by 19% in 2017 from 17.2% in 2016 amid the continued expansion of the domestic economy.
  • Latest data from the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) showed bank lending grew faster at 21.1% to PHP6.76tr in end-Sep 17 from PHP5.58tr in end-Sep 16.
  • Loans for production activities extended by banks surged 20.7% to PHP6tr in end-Sep 17 from PHP4.97tr in end-Sep 16. This accounted for 88.8% of the loans disbursed by the banking sector.
  • Yang warned there could be potential overheating if the 21.1% growth in bank lending in Sep 17 accelerates further.
  • The IMF official has identified potential overheating due to rapid credit growth as one of the domestic risks on top of natural disasters and security-related events.
  • The multilateral lender sees the country’s gross domestic product (GDP) growing 6.6% in 2017, 6.7% in 2018, and 6.8% in 2019.
  • According to Yang, the BSP’s Monetary Board should be ready to step in and intervene to prevent the overheating of the economy that grew faster-than-expected in 3Q17 at 6.9% from the revised 6.7% 2Q17.

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