Malaysia: Butterfly effect: Rafizi win increases chance of BN landslide in GE15

  • Rafizi Ramli winning the PKR deputy president race has been widely celebrated among opposition supporters.
  • However, a survey by Rafizi’s analytics firm Invoke Solutions prior to the party polls has surmised that the impact of the former Pandan MP’s victory will likely have the opposite effect on Pakatan Harapan’s chances in the 15th general election (GE15).
  • “Victory for Rafizi will likely kill any chance of a ‘big tent’ opposition approach for GE15 and greatly increases the likelihood of a BN landslide,” Invoke wrote in the conclusion of the survey report.
  • If ballots during GE15 are going to be as crowded as they were in Johor and Malacca, then there is a strong chance that BN may replicate their results and benefit from the opposition splitting their votes.
  • While BN winning GE15 by a landslide may seem like a nightmare to their critics, Invoke sees a silver lining for PKR in the long run.
  • “(Rafizi’s victory) will also likely accelerate the party’s regeneration process and create better long-term prospects for the party amongst Malaysia’s general population,” the firm noted.
  • Meanwhile, on the matter of public support for PKR, Invoke found that 35% of respondents said they would, 19% would not, and 46% were undecided.
  • However, Invoke theorised that the level of support for PKR was likely bolstered by DAP and Amanah supporters, who would vote PKR since they are in the same coalition.
  • “(The amount of support for PKR) would likely be lower if PKR were running in opposition to Harapan,” the report said.
  • There had been growing sentiments among PKR leaders for the party to distance itself from Harapan.
  • A poll among party members in the same report found that 47% favoured PKR going solo, while 34% opposed it, and 18% were unsure.

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