Indonesia: Prabowo Tops Presidential Survey But No Dominant Figures Emerge

  • Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto has the strongest electability among potential presidential hopefuls but no one has emerged as a dominant figure to suggest that the race remains open, according to a survey released on 22 Feb 21.
  • Prabowo, who is also chairman of the Great Indonesia Movement Party (Gerindra), gets 22.5% of respondent approvals in a survey by Lembaga Survei Indonesia (Indonesia Survey Institute) or LSI.
  • Central Java Governor Ganjar Pranowo is at a distant second with 10.6%, followed by Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan with 10.2%, according to the survey.
  • “We still have no dominant figures at the meantime. There’s a chance that the 2024 presidential election will involve more than two candidates, maybe three,” LSI executive director Djayadi Hanan said in a video conference.
  • “In this situation, a candidate must have electability of 40% to emerge as a leading candidate and we see none right now,” he said.
  • In the last two presidential elections, Indonesian voters had to choose between Prabowo and Joko Widodo — the latter ultimately won both.
  • When respondents were provided with a list of ten names, Prabowo continued to have an edge over other candidates. In this scenario, his electability rises to 26%, while Ganjar and Anies both get 15.4% and 13.3%, respectively.
  • Several other prominent figures also surfaced in the survey despite having electability below 10%. They include Tourism and Creative Economy Minister Sandiaga Uno, West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil and Social Affairs Minister Tri Rismaharini.
  • According to the country’s election law, a political party must have at least a 20% share of the House of Representatives seats to nominate a candidate, meaning that no party can propose their candidate independently.
  • The ruling Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) has just above 19% of House seats so it must form a coalition with another party to meet the threshold.
  • According to the same survey, the PDI-P remains the most-favored party among voters. If legislative election was held now, the ruling party will get 20.1% of the votes, while Prabowo’s Gerindra would be trailing behind with 11%, Djayadi said.

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