Indonesia: Prabowo narrows electoral gap ahead of voting day: Kompas survey

• In the survey conducted by Kompas, Indonesia’s largest newspaper, the electability of Mr Joko and his vice-presidential candidate, Dr Ma’ruf Amin, dropped to 49.2%, from 52.6% six months ago.
• In contrast, support for presidential hopeful Prabowo Subianto and his running mate Sandiaga Uno rose to 37.4%, up almost five points from the previous survey by Kompas released in Oct 18.
• At his peak, Mr Joko’s approval rating was almost 70%, with several surveys in Oct 17 showing he would win by a wide margin if the election had been held at the time.
• The latest Kompas findings have again cast the spotlight on the veracity of polls conducted by no fewer than 22 survey firms in Indonesia, with a majority publishing results that often show Mr Joko with an unassailable lead in his re-election bid.
• There is no question that Mr Joko is an immensely popular leader who has more than done his part for the country since he defeated former army general Prabowo in the 2014 presidential race.
• However, there have been questions swirling around the impartiality of a handful of survey firms, as well as the research methodology applied by others.
• Long-time observers of Indonesian politics such as Asia Journalism fellow Eko Maryadi generally view the Kompas survey as one of the more independent and reliable surveys.
• There are, however, those who questioned how the newspaper’s surveys were conducted. One of them is Dr Denny Januar Ali, who heads Jakarta-based research firm Lingkaran Survei Indonesia (LSI) Denny JA.
• Asked about the latest Kompas findings, Dr Denny wondered, for example, if respondents were shown photos of the candidates.
• Mr Ericssen, an independent political analyst, said that while some may regard Kompas as an “outlier” for releasing survey findings that go against the grain of other recent polls, its results may not necessarily be wrong.
• “The right attitude is that we should start examining more closely the ‘inlier’ polls, which have been forming the implausible consensus that Jokowi is having a comfortable 20-point lead and will cruise to a landslide victory,” said Mr Ericssen.

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