Indonesia: It’s Prabowo vs. Anies in 2024, survey says

  • A political survey has suggested that Gerindra Party leader Prabowo Subianto would square off against Jakarta Governor Anies Baswedan in 2024, with the former allies likely representing two competing political alliances, one led by the Indonesian Democratic Party of Struggle (PDI-P) and the other by the NasDem Party.
  • The survey, conducted by pollster Indo Barometer, shows that voters still expect the former general to run in the 2024 presidential election, even though he has lost every single presidential election since 2009.
  • Prabowo, now the defense minister in Jokowi’s Cabinet, gained 22.5% of the vote from 1,200 respondents, while Anies secured 14.3%, according to the survey released on 24 Feb 20.
  • The pollster said the results indicated that Prabowo could be competing against yet another Jakarta governor that he had once endorsed.
  • While Gerindra has yet to officially announce a plan to nominate its chairman again, Indo Barometer executive director Muhammad Qodari said he was convinced Prabowo had not given up his political ambitions.
  • He pointed out that Prabowo had secured a political stage for the next four years by accepting Jokowi’s appointment as defense minister. A previous Indo Barometer survey on ministers found Prabowo to be a favorite among respondents, who also believed he has been performing the best out of his Cabinet peers.
  • Anies, on the other hand, is now seen as the strongest potential presidential candidate among regional heads. He is well known by the public because the Jakarta governor usually receives national attention and more exposure by the media, Qodari said.
  • The survey also suggested that a face-off between Anies and Prabowo could also be the result of growing competition between the PDI-P and NasDem.
  • Without Jokowi, the PDI-P, the only party able to nominate its own candidate, will likely pair Prabowo with its own members, including House of Representatives speaker and Megawati’s daughter, Puan Maharani.
  • Qodari said that technically, the PDI-P could nominate Puan without having to form an alliance with other parties, but such a move was not politically viable. According to the Indo Barometer survey, Puan secured only 1% of the vote.
  • In a scenario in which the PDI-P-led coalition competed against the NasDem coalition, Prabowo would be the strongest when paired with Puan, while Anies had a better chance of winning the election if paired with West Java Governor Ridwan Kamil or Agus Harimurti Yudhoyono, the son of former president and Democratic Party leader Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.
  • According to the poll, the Prabowo-Puan pair would beat Anies in every scenario where the Jakarta governor was paired with other potential candidates, such as Agus, Golkar Party chairman and Coordinating Economic Minister Airlangga Hartarto, National Awakening Party (PKB) chairman and People’s Consultative Assembly Deputy Speaker Muhaimin Iskandar and Ridwan Kamil.

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