Indonesia: IDR projected at 15,000 against USD in 2019 state budget

  • The government and House of Representatives agreed to revise the IDR’s exchange rate assumption to 15,000 per USD in the 2019 state budget bill on 16 Oct 18. The figure is a revision of the initial projection of IDR14,400 per USD.
  • Lawmakers and government representatives also agreed on several other macroeconomic assumptions – 5.3% economic growth, 3.5% inflation rate, 5.3% three-month treasury bill (SPN) rate, USD70 per barrel for Indonesian Crude Price (ICP), 775,000 barrels of oil per day (bopd) of oil lifting and 1.25 million barrels of oil equivalent per day (boepd) of gas lifting.
  • Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati explained that various estimates had the IDR above IDR15,000 against the USD in 2019.
  • “Every 1% depreciation of the rupiah will cause inflation of 0.03%. With the change of rate projection from IDR14,400 to IDR15,000, the inflation is projected to increase from 3.49% to 3.56%. It is still in our range of target,” said Sri Mulyani during the hearing.
  • The minister said the 12% depreciation of the IDR was expected to boost exports, however export performance would still face various challenges, including problems in the manufacturing industry domestically and the trade war externally.
  • Therefore, she estimated that export growth in 2019 would not exceed 7% and would hoover at around 6.28% instead.

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