Indonesia: Domestic oil output 15% short of target in 1Q22

  • Indonesia’s oil and gas industry continues to face challenges as investment and ready-to-sell oil and gas production, or lifting, in 1Q22 was well under the state budget target. Oil lifting reached 611,700 barrels of oil per day (bopd), which is 14.9% lower than the targeted 703,000 bopd, Upstream Oil and Gas Special Regulatory Taskforce (SKK Migas) data show.
  • Meanwhile, gas production reached 5,321 million metric standard cubic feet per day (mmscfd), which is 9% lower than its target of 5,800 mmscfd, the same data show. Investment amounted to USD2.1bn or 16% of the USD13.2bn target set for 2022.
  • SKK Migas head Dwi Soetjipto said that the lower-than-target oil and gas lifting was due to a low entry point in 2022 because of the pandemic in 2021, and unplanned shutdowns in several fields, including those operated by multinational British Petroleum (BP) and state-owned Pertamina upstream subsidiary Pertamina Hulu Rokan (PHR).
  • “We are trying to reduce unplanned shutdowns but [so far] it is yet to succeed,” Dwi said at a press briefing. Indonesia’s oil production has continued to decline in the past five years, dropping significantly from about 1 million bopd in the 1970s.
  • The decline is mostly caused by aging wells and a lack of new discoveries. Output fell from 831,000 bopd in 2016 to just 708,000 bopd in 2020, Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry data show.
  • A further decline to 300,000 bopd in 2030 and 119,000 bopd in 2040 would amount to a drop of around 58% and 87%, respectively, from the 2020 level.
  • Exacerbating an oil and gas deficit, the National General Energy Plan (RUEN) projects a drastic increase in oil and gas consumption over the coming decades.
  • Similarly, according to SKK Migas data, domestic oil consumption is forecast to more than double to 3.97 million bopd in 2050, while natural gas consumption is expected to more than quadruple to 26,000 mmscfd.

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