India: IMD forecast 97% normal monsoon for 2018

  • India will get a normal monsoon in 2018, with rainfall expected at 97% of the average, auguring well for agricultural output and brightening market sentiment, the national weather office said.
  • Rainfall in the Jun 18-Sep 18, which delivers 73% of the country’s total precipitation, is expected to be normal in the absence of the rain-busting El Niño phenomenon, which is associated with warm temperatures over parts of the Pacific Ocean. The reverse phenomenon, La Niña, is expected to be neutralised before the season begins.
  • The probability of normal rainfall is 42%. There is a 30% chance of below-normal rainfall, 12% of above-normal rain and 14% of deficient rain this monsoon season.
  • The monsoon is considered normal if rainfall is between 96% and 104% of the LPA of 89 cm. In 2017, rainfall was 95% of the LPA during the monsoon season. While the IMD’s prediction may send cheers for the economy at the outset, the arrival of the monsoon and distribution of rainfall are important factors.
  • Factors like La Nina and Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which impact the southwest monsoon in India positively, are likely to be neutralised by the time the monsoon sets in, the weather office said.
  • These factors will be included in the IMD’s second assessment of the monsoon season in early Jun 18. A healthy rainfall is also crucial politically as this is the last monsoon before the 2019 general elections.
  • The India Meteorological Department (IMD), which has a strong track record of making accurate forecasts, said the probability of normal rain in the Jun 18-Sep 18 season far exceeds the prospects of a deficient monsoon or excessive showers.
  • While agriculture’s share of gross domestic product is barely 14%, it impacts the livelihood of two thirds of the population. Monsoon rainfall is crucial for kharif (summer-sown) crops.
  • Food output in the kharif season used to be much higher than rabi, or winter-sown, output. The kharif crop was 20% more than rabi 15 years ago, but now the two seasons produce an equal amount of food. This means that India’s food output now depends a bit less on the monsoon season.

External Link : https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/politics-and-nation/97-normal-monsoon-expected-for-2018-says-imd/articleshow/63783804.cms

External Link : https://www.livemint.com/Politics/yXH2aScXFh9ooaG05XtGmL/IMD-forecasts-a-normal-monsoon-in-2018.html

17-Apr-2018


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