China Reopening May Boost Hong Kong’s GDP by 7.6%, Goldman Says

  • Hong Kong could see an estimated 7.6% boost to its gross domestic product as exports and tourism income climbs, while Thailand’s GDP may get a lift of 2.9%, Goldman Sachs economists wrote in a note. The impact on Singapore is smaller, at 1.2%, followed by 0.7% for Malaysia, they said.
  • The estimates are based on the assumption that China’s reopening currently underway will increase the nation’s domestic demand by 5%p and push international trips back to 2019 levels, Goldman’s economists Hui Shan and Goohoon Kwon wrote in the note on 11 Dec 22.
  • Hong Kong will likely see a boost to travel spending amounting to 6% of its GDP, while the impact on Thailand is estimated at 3%, Goldman said. The impact may be even stronger if Chinese citizens turn out to have significant “pent-up” demand for travel after three years of borders being closed, the economists said.

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