Manu’s views on ‘geopolitics of trade wars’

“If the net effect is that global trade contracts, that is bad for Southeast Asia since it is a region with high export exposure,”

• Steel and aluminium are not major exports for most ASEAN economies so the direct impact is limited.
• However, the recent moves suggest a rising risk of trade wars with countries retaliating against each other in a downward spiral of confrontation. If the net effect is that global trade contracts, that is bad for SE Asia since it is a region with high export exposure.
• Moreover, the Trump Administration’s policies towards the WTO threaten to weaken its functioning, that is also a major risk as the WTO ensures a fair trading system where disputes are settled amicably through a dispute settlement mechanism etc. If the WTO weakens, small exporting nations will be bullied by the larger ones and everyone will suffer.
• SE Asian nations have responded in some ways already. Some, like Singapore, Malaysia, Vietnam and Brunei, have gone ahead with the CPTPP trade agreement while they and several other Asian nations are negotiating the RCEP trade agreement. All this is being done to keep up the momentum of trade and globalisation.

Reference Link : https://theaseanpost.com/article/geopolitics-trade-wars