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Guns, germs, and greening mean more government spending
- Even as governments attempt to normalize fiscal policy following the massive expansions induced by the pandemic, long-run structural factors point to increased fiscal pressures.
- Asian populations are getting older and sicker, while health has risen in salience as a political issue. Government health expenditures will rise to meet this demand.
The end of the chinese growth miracle?
- Structural factors cast doubt on Beijing’s ambitions to achieve “medium-developed country” status by 2035. This will have consequences for global economic prospects.
- China risks turning old before getting rich, with the labour force shrinkage progressively dragging on growth. There is little that policy can achieve to reverse this decline.