Jackson Hole – Takeaways for Asia

Jackson Hole – Takeaways for Asia
Three important implications emerge for Asian policy making following the Jackson Hole event.

  • First, the developed economies will persist with a more stringent pace of monetary than expected. Second, a more complex global environment is making it difficult to design monetary policy which is becoming less effective. Finally, the US Dollar has strengthened even more following the event.
  • The net result is that there is more pressure on Asian central bankers to follow suit even if
    the downside risks to global growth have intensified:

Asia: Outlook for the Electronics Industry

  • Lead indicators point to slowing global electronics demand which will inflict some short- term pain on Asian economies. However, secular growth trends in electronics make for a soft landing for Asian electronics while long-term growth is likely to be stellar.
  • Within Asia, Malaysia and Taiwan are the most vulnerable to an electronics slowdown. India and Indonesia are the two economies least affected by the slowdown.

What has changed recently:

  • A bad week for Prime Ministers: Thai Prime Minister Prayuth has been suspended by the Constitutional Court. Malaysian Premier Ismail Sabri is under pressure to call early elections after the jailing of his predecessor for corruption.
  • China: The CNY1tr in additional fiscal stimulus will have limited effect. Ongoing regulatory crackdowns may hinder the efficacy of stimulus efforts.
  • Singapore: MAS is set to tighten policy again in Oct 22 given continuing price pressures.

Read more: CAA-Weekly-29-Aug-22.pdf