- April 5, 2021
- Posted by: admin
- Category: Centennial Asia Insights
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Highlights from the CAA Weekly Table:
- Political risks: China is testing Biden. Its intrusions into the air space and waters of Japan, Taiwan and the Philippines are designed to show up the US as a toothless tiger, unable to defend its allies. But China may have miscalculated and the result is higher risk of tensions.
- Asian economies: Asian growth could see significant upside. Recent data show global demand for Asian exports firming. Massive investments by tech firms validate the view that tech demand will be powerfully boost Asian growth. In China, export demand will offset domestic weakness. New infection surges are hurting India and the Philippines. Thailand remains sickly. Robust exports and a likely upturn in investment will drive South Korea’s out-performance this year.
Asian monetary policy: Policy rates have troughed
- The results of our updated Taylor Rule model for assessing the monetary policy outlook are presented below:
Policy Rate (%) |
Conventional policy |
Unconventional policy |
|
China | 2020: 2.16% |
|
|
2021e: 2.55% | |||
India | 2020: 4.00% |
|
|
2021e: 4.35% | |||
Indonesia | 2020: 3.75% |
|
|
2021e: 3.75% | |||
Thailand |
2020: 0.5% |
|
|
2021e: 0.5% |
|||
Singapore | 2020: – |
|
|
2021e: – | |||
Malaysia | 2020: 1.75% |
|
|
2021e: 1.75% | |||
The Philippines | 2020: 2.0% |
|
|
2021e: 2.0% |
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5-Apr-2021