The CAA Regional Heatmap shows a regional overview and also for individual economies in the region. It provides an efficient and holistic summary of the trends in various economic indicators.
Regional HeatMap (Based on the data as on 27-March-2020)
- Regional
- China
- India
- Indonesia
- Malaysia
- Philippines
- Thailand
- Vietnam
- Hong Kong
- Korea
- Singapore
- Taiwan
|
CN |
IN |
ID |
MY |
PH |
TH |
VN |
HK |
KR |
SG |
TW |
Real GDP | 6.1 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 6.4 | 1.6 | 7.0 | -2.9 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 2.9 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Retail Sales | 8.0 | NA | -1.9 | 6.9 | -27.8 | -3.6 | 8.3 | -23.0 | 1.8 | -4.4 | 0.9 | |
Consumer Confidence | 126.6 | NA | 117.7 | NA | 1.3 | 64.8 | NA | #N/A | 96.9 | NA | 83.9 | |
Motor Vehicle Sales | -9.4 | -19.8 | -2.7 | -12.0 | -2.8 | -8.2 | NA | -20.9 | -23.7 | -6.8 | 20.2 | |
Visitor Arrivals | 11.3 | 1.3 | 5.9 | -4.8 | 13.0 | 2.5 | 4.8 | -52.7 | 15.2 | 3.9 | -6.3 | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | 43.2 | 13.3 | -9.1 | 12.0 | 28.0 | -18.0 | 6.8 | 9.3 | | 1.1 | 18.4 | |
Foreign Direct Investment | -7.4 | 149.4 | -5.0 | -2.6 | 23.0 | 10.3 | 104.7 | -13.1 | 27.9 | 35.5 | 116.8 | |
Domestic Investment | -25.7 | NA | 18.5 | -2.4 | -31.9 | -8.1 | 17.5 | NA | -3.8 | 286.9 | NA | |
Capital Goods Imports | 22.6 | 11.3 | -16.4 | -9.0 | 1.7 | -2.1 | 15.1 | -21.5 | 12.0 | 15.9 | 42.0 | |
Exports | 7.7 | 2.9 | 11.0 | -1.6 | 9.7 | -1.0 | 50.3 | -13.8 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 21.8 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Industrial Production | 6.9 | 2.0 | -0.8 | 0.6 | -1.6 | -4.6 | 23.7 | 1.4 | -0.5 | -3.2 | -1.5 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 35.7 | 54.5 | 51.9 | 48.5 | 52.3 | 49.5 | 49.0 | 46.8 | 48.7 | 47.0 | 49.9 | |
Business Confidence (Index) | 122.8 | 63.0 | 104.8 | 88.3 | 40.2 | 90.2 | NA | -22.0 | 83.1 | 1.0 | 94.2 | |
Electricity Production | 22.8 | 3.1 | 6.8 | 0.9 | 5.7 | 5.7 | 22.5 | 4.3 | -5.6 | -0.1 | -4.2 | |
Cement Production | NA | NA | -0.1 | NA | NA | -2.5 | NA | NA | NA | 11.4 | NA | |
Cargo Handled | 5.6 | 6.5 | 0.9 | #N/A | -3.0 | -76.3 | 7.0 | 2.8 | -5.8 | -1.0 | -9.3 | |
  |
Domestic Stability | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CPI Inflation | 5.2 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | |
Policy rate (%) | 4.35 | 5.15 | 4.75 | 2.75 | 3.75 | 1.00 | 4.00 | 2.00 | 1.25 | 1.69 | 1.375 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | -1.1 | 1.3 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.5 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.1 | |
Broad Money (M2) | 8.8 | 10.2 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 12.2 | 2.3 | 7.7 | 5.8 | 4.6 | |
Credit Growth | 12.1 | 7.4 | 5.7 | 3.5 | 12.4 | 3.3 | 13.6 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 3.0 | 4.6 | |
Non-performing Loans (%) | 1.7 | 9.5 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 3.1 | NA | 0.5 | 0.4 | 1.3 | 0.2 | |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.6 | NA | 5.3 | 3.2 | 5.3 | 1.1 | 2.2 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.7 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | 0.6 | -0.9 | -2.7 | 2.1 | -1.1 | 6.9 | 1.7 | 6.0 | 3.6 | 16.3 | 10.9 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | 128.2 | -36.3 | 1.6 | 7.5 | -9.3 | 4.2 | 2.3 | -11.4 | 6.4 | 4.3 | 3.7 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | 0.4 | 5.9 | 3.0 | 0.2 | 1.6 | 3.8 | 7.6 | 2.7 | 0.4 | 2.5 | 1.2 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | 0.3 | 0.0 | 2.1 | -0.2 | 0.0 | -3.6 | -0.3 | 0.7 | -2.4 | -2.1 | 1.0 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 18.0 | 11.7 | 9.2 | 6.1 | 9.7 | 12.8 | 3.5 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 9.4 | 20.0 | |
REER | 1.5 | 6.2 | 4.9 | -0.9 | 5.4 | 0.2 | NA | 1.7 | -5.7 | -2.4 | 1.5 |
|
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Real GDP | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 6.4 | 6.3 | 6.2 | 6.1 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Retail Sales | 8.2 | 8.7 | 7.2 | 8.6 | 9.8 | 7.6 | 7.5 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 8.0 | 8.0 | |
Consumer Confidence Index | 126.0 | 124.1 | 125.3 | 123.4 | 125.9 | 124.4 | 122.4 | 124.1 | 124.3 | 124.6 | 126.6 | |
Motor Vehicle Sales | -4.3 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 4.6 | 14.5 | 0.1 | -4.7 | -16.6 | -14.3 | -11.6 | -9.4 | |
Visitor Arrivals | -17.0 | 2.0 | 5.0 | 1.4 | 13.5 | -4.8 | -12.9 | -2.1 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 11.3 | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | 8.6 | 448.4 | 202.6 | 106.5 | 106.7 | 81.7 | 48.2 | 52.1 | 44.2 | 34.0 | 43.2 | |
FDI Utilized | -6.4 | 3.0 | 14.5 | 2.1 | 6.2 | 12.1 | -8.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 1.4 | -7.4 | |
FAI (ytd) | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | -1.9 | -3.5 | -4.6 | -6.7 | -12.4 | -13.2 | -25.7 | -25.7 | |
Capital Goods Imports (Proxy) | -12.1 | -7.6 | -3.0 | -11.4 | -7.5 | -8.8 | -5.3 | -12.6 | -8.0 | 7.0 | 22.6 | |
Exports | -21.2 | 14.1 | -3.3 | 0.5 | -1.7 | 2.8 | -1.2 | -3.8 | -2.0 | -2.7 | 7.7 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Industrial Production (IMF) | 15.4 | -2.1 | 6.0 | 7.0 | 6.8 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 5.8 | 4.2 | 5.4 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 50.1 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 49.7 | 49.5 | 49.8 | 49.3 | 50.2 | 50.2 | 50.0 | 35.7 | |
Business Climate (Index) | 123.1 | 123.5 | 123.4 | 126.6 | 124.5 | 122.7 | 120.2 | 126.6 | 123.2 | 123.4 | 122.8 | |
Electricity Production | 23.1 | 9.7 | -4.5 | 5.8 | 14.2 | 20.8 | 20.4 | -7.7 | -10.8 | 7.4 | 22.8 | |
Freight Carried | 6.9 | 0.9 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 5.3 | 2.5 | 5.6 | |
  |
Domestic Stability | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CPI Inflation | 2.3 | 2.7 | 2.7 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 3.8 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 5.4 | 5.2 | |
Policy rate (%) | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | 4.35 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | -0.4 | -1.1 | |
Broad Money (M2) | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.5 | 8.1 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.4 | 8.2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 8.8 | |
Credit Growth | 13.7 | 13.3 | 13.0 | 12.6 | 12.4 | 12.5 | 12.4 | 12.4 | 12.3 | 12.1 | 12.1 | |
Non-performing Loans (%) | | | | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 1.7 | |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.95 | 3.95 | 3.90 | 3.89 | 3.83 | 3.82 | 3.80 | 3.67 | 3.61 | 3.61 | 3.62 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | 1.5 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 1.4 | 0.9 | -0.4 | 0.6 | 1.3 | 0.6 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | 100.3 | 75.9 | 50.6 | 88.2 | 106.5 | 137.2 | 130.4 | 119.1 | 117.5 | 120.6 | 128.2 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.2 | -0.9 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | 1.0 | -1.7 | -2.8 | -2.4 | -3.1 | -3.1 | -3.2 | 0.6 | 1.4 | 2.5 | 0.3 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 17.5 | 17.6 | 17.5 | 17.7 | 17.9 | 17.9 | 18.0 | 18.1 | 18.3 | 18.2 | 18.0 | |
REER | 0.0 | -2.5 | -3.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.7 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 2.2 | 1.5 |
|
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Real GDP | 5.8 | 6.5 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 7.1 | 6.2 | 5.6 | 5.7 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 4.7 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | -4.2 | 5.0 | -0.5 | -2.1 | -6.6 | -2.5 | 7.3 | -1.6 | -19.0 | -11.8 | -19.8 | |
Foreign Direct Investment | -4.8 | 3.5 | 0.7 | 5.4 | 1.4 | 1.6 | 4.3 | 6.1 | 7.8 | 2.8 | 1.3 | |
Capital Goods Imports | | | 20.5 | 26.4 | -3.5 | -9.2 | 4.1 | 3.6 | 5.3 | 16.3 | 11.3 | |
Exports | 12.2 | 3.4 | -7.8 | 1.7 | -6.4 | -6.3 | -1.1 | -0.3 | -1.6 | -1.7 | 2.9 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Industrial Production (IPI) | 0.2 | 3.2 | 4.5 | 1.3 | 4.9 | -1.4 | -4.6 | -6.6 | 1.8 | 0.1 | 2.0 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 50.1 | 49.4 | 49.4 | 49.7 | 49.5 | 49.8 | 49.3 | 50.2 | 50.2 | 50.0 | 35.7 | |
Business Expectations (Index) | 63.7 | 76.7 | 91.0 | 85.0 | 81.0 | 79.5 | 73.8 | 78.0 | 70.0 | 56.4 | 63.0 | |
IPI: Electricity | 1.3 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 8.6 | 5.2 | -0.9 | -2.6 | -12.2 | -5.0 | -0.1 | 3.1 | |
Railway Traffic | 6.6 | 2.9 | 2.0 | 1.6 | -6.1 | -6.6 | -8.1 | 0.9 | 4.3 | 3.0 | 6.5 | |
  |
Domestic Stability | | | | | | | | | | | | |
WPI Inflation | 3.1 | 2.8 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.0 | 0.6 | 2.8 | 3.1 | 2.3 | |
Policy rate (%) | 6.25 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.75 | 5.40 | 5.40 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.15 | 5.15 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | 4.4 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 2.9 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 1.3 | |
Broad Money (M3) | 10.5 | 10.3 | 10.1 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 10.6 | 9.8 | 10.4 | 11.2 | 10.2 | |
Credit Growth | 8.0 | 6.5 | 10.7 | 9.5 | 11.1 | 13.1 | 12.9 | 13.1 | 11.7 | 8.9 | 7.4 | |
Non-performing Loans (%) | | | 2.4 | 2.7 | 3.4 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 5.9 | 9.2 | 10.0 | 9.5 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | -0.6 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -1.8 | -1.8 | -2.3 | -2.4 | -2.1 | -2.0 | -1.6 | -0.9 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | -35.7 | -44.1 | -49.2 | -47.0 | -44.0 | -39.5 | -36.2 | -34.6 | -34.3 | -38.6 | -36.3 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | 4.4 | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 2.4 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 3.8 | 5.3 | 6.0 | 5.9 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | 1.8 | 2.0 | 0.1 | 1.0 | -2.0 | -2.8 | -3.3 | -0.4 | 0.2 | -0.4 | 0.0 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 10.0 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 11.1 | 11.4 | 11.7 | |
REER | 0.1 | 2.5 | 2.1 | 3.2 | 1.4 | 6.0 | 8.1 | 4.6 | 5.0 | 5.2 | 6.2 |
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Real GDP | 5.0 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 5.0 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Retail Sales | 10.1 | 7.7 | -1.8 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -1.9 | |
Consumer Confidence | 124.5 | 128.2 | 126.4 | 124.8 | 123.1 | 121.8 | 118.4 | 124.2 | 126.4 | 121.7 | 117.7 | |
Motor Vehicle Sales | -11.2 | -16.3 | 1.3 | -17.0 | -11.4 | -0.1 | -9.4 | -9.4 | -0.2 | -2.6 | -2.7 | |
Visitor Arrivals | -1.7 | -0.4 | 1.3 | 9.9 | -4.1 | 3.1 | 2.1 | 4.9 | 10.7 | -2.0 | 5.9 | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | 7.8 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 9.6 | 8.0 | 6.5 | 5.5 | 4.5 | 5.3 | 4.9 | -9.1 | |
Investment Realisation: Foreign | 15.4 | 12.7 | 11.4 | 11.5 | -13.5 | -20.2 | -11.6 | -11.5 | -2.1 | 5.3 | -5.0 | |
Investment Realisation: Dom | 16.9 | 16.8 | 16.4 | 11.0 | 32.1 | 30.5 | 28.5 | 14.2 | 18.7 | 18.8 | 18.5 | |
Capital Goods Imports | -7.9 | -15.4 | 3.3 | -3.5 | -5.8 | 8.9 | -11.3 | -3.5 | -8.4 | -5.3 | -16.4 | |
Exports | -9.0 | -8.5 | -8.9 | -5.1 | -10.0 | -5.7 | -6.1 | -6.1 | 1.1 | -2.1 | 11.0 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Industrial Production | 0.6 | 3.2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 4.6 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.5 | -0.8 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 50.4 | 51.6 | 50.8 | 49.6 | 49.0 | 49.1 | 47.7 | 48.2 | 49.5 | 49.3 | 51.9 | |
Business Tendancy (Index) | 111.6 | 112.4 | 111.0 | 106.3 | 112.8 | 108.1 | 104.7 | 102.1 | 108.8 | 105.3 | 104.8 | |
Electricity Sales | 10.4 | 7.0 | 14.2 | 9.6 | 12.3 | 21.1 | 21.6 | 12.4 | 2.0 | 15.2 | 6.8 | |
Cement Consumption | -0.7 | -8.4 | 12.7 | -1.6 | -3.2 | -0.5 | 2.0 | 9.5 | 7.2 | -7.4 | -0.1 | |
Port Cargo Handled | 40.6 | 27.9 | 58.6 | 6.2 | -6.9 | 2.9 | -0.8 | 17.1 | -6.7 | 6.8 | 0.9 | |
  |
Domestic Stability | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CPI Inflation | 2.6 | 2.5 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.7 | |
Policy rate (%) | 6.00 | 6.00 | 6.00 | 5.75 | 5.50 | 5.25 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 | 4.75 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.0 | 3.4 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 2.7 | 2.6 | 2.3 | |
Broad Money (M2) | 6.5 | 6.2 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 7.9 | 7.3 | 9.4 | 6.3 | 7.1 | 6.5 | 7.1 | |
Credit Growth | 12.0 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 8.7 | 8.0 | 6.6 | 7.0 | 5.9 | 5.7 | |
Non-performing Loans (%) | 2.1 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 2.1 | 2.4 | 3.0 | 2.6 | |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.9 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 5.3 | 5.0 | 5.3 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | -1.9 | -2.2 | -2.6 | -2.9 | -3.1 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -2.7 | -3.1 | -2.9 | -2.7 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | -0.1 | -1.4 | -1.8 | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.1 | -1.4 | -1.3 | -2.1 | 1.6 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | 3.5 | -2.4 | -0.6 | 1.3 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 3.9 | 4.0 | 3.0 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | 0.1 | -2.5 | -0.1 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 0.8 | -0.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 2.7 | 2.1 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 8.1 | 8.0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 8.6 | 8.5 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.2 | |
REER | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.0 | 5.3 | 5.7 | 9.0 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.9 |
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Real GDP | 4.0 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 4.4 | 4.7 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Retail Sales | 13.5 | 12.2 | 10.4 | 9.2 | 9.8 | 12.9 | 12.1 | 8.6 | 7.5 | 7.0 | 6.9 | |
Motor Vehicle Sales | 9.6 | 6.2 | 41.4 | -34.0 | -25.7 | -22.0 | 43.0 | 14.0 | 8.9 | 13.8 | -12.0 | |
Visitor Arrivals | -0.9 | -3.4 | -3.6 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 6.1 | 5.5 | 4.8 | 3.9 | -4.8 | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | 0.3 | 1.5 | -0.5 | 3.6 | -4.6 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 6.1 | 8.3 | 5.9 | 12.0 | |
Foreign Direct Investment | -0.7 | 47.7 | -11.2 | -1.0 | 20.4 | -41.5 | 5.6 | 12.0 | -24.0 | -8.0 | -2.6 | |
Manuf Investment Approved | -28.6 | -13.4 | -14.1 | 8.9 | 97.5 | 19.2 | 69.0 | 37.2 | 103.0 | 63.6 | -2.4 | |
Capital Goods Imports | -3.2 | -2.1 | -1.9 | -12.6 | -10.0 | -15.1 | -3.8 | -8.1 | -2.9 | -6.5 | -9.0 | |
Exports | -0.8 | 0.2 | 1.0 | -2.9 | 1.0 | -0.6 | -6.1 | -7.0 | -5.4 | 3.0 | -1.6 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Industrial Production | 1.7 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 1.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 2.1 | 1.3 | 0.6 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 49.4 | 48.8 | 47.8 | 47.4 | 47.6 | 47.9 | 49.3 | 49.5 | 50.0 | 48.8 | 48.5 | |
Business Conditions (Index) | 114.1 | 103.1 | 101.5 | 98.6 | 116.3 | 108.8 | 95.3 | 94.3 | 94.2 | 69.0 | 88.3 | |
Electricity Production | 4.7 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 4.9 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 0.9 | |
  |
Domestic Stability | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CPI Inflation | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 1.6 | |
Policy rate (%) | 3.25 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 3.00 | 2.75 | 2.75 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.7 | 2.2 | |
Broad Money (M2) | 5.9 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.0 | 4.7 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.2 | 2.8 | 3.5 | 3.8 | |
Credit Growth | 7.0 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 3.9 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3.5 | |
Non-performing Loans (%) | 4.8 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 1.5 | |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.2 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | 2.1 | 2.3 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 2.8 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 2.1 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | 9.0 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 7.3 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 7.7 | 8.7 | 7.5 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | 1.3 | -0.1 | -0.3 | 0.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | -0.7 | -0.3 | 0.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | 0.1 | -2.2 | -2.0 | -0.2 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -1.6 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 2.6 | -0.2 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | |
REER | -2.4 | -2.5 | -1.4 | -1.1 | -1.0 | -0.1 | -1.0 | -0.7 | -0.8 | 0.5 | -0.9 |
|
t-10 |
t-9 |
t-8 |
t-7 |
t-6 |
t-5 |
t-4 |
t-3 |
t-2 |
t-1 |
t |
Real GDP | 6.6 | 7.2 | 6.6 | 6.5 | 6.2 | 6.0 | 6.3 | 5.6 | 5.5 | 6.0 | 6.4 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Domestic Trade | 8.8 | 3.3 | -2.9 | 6.1 | 25.3 | 10.6 | 0.3 | -0.6 | -17.9 | 20.1 | -27.8 | |
Consumer Exp (Current) | 13.1 | 10.2 | 9.5 | 1.7 | 3.8 | -7.1 | -22.5 | -0.5 | -1.3 | 4.6 | 1.3 | |
Motor Vehicle Sales | 0.8 | 9.7 | 19.6 | 23.1 | 7.8 | 12.0 | 14.1 | 21.6 | 5.5 | -11.8 | -2.8 | |
Visitor Arrivals | 13.8 | 11.1 | 12.2 | 15.6 | 21.8 | 19.6 | 29.6 | 17.1 | 23.2 | 22.4 | 13.0 | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | 0.8 | -3.2 | -0.8 | -0.8 | -0.1 | 0.9 | 5.5 | 5.1 | 6.7 | 11.4 | 28.0 | |
Foreign Direct Investment | -55.0 | 61.2 | -82.8 | -37.9 | 70.4 | -0.9 | 321.2 | 223.6 | 60.2 | 327.9 | 23.0 | |
Investment Approved | 29.7 | 105.1 | 2.8 | 52.4 | -50.2 | -34.7 | 114.2 | 48.1 | -6.7 | 187.7 | -31.9 | |
Capital Goods Imports | 13.9 | 0.1 | 0.8 | -3.4 | 3.5 | -1.3 | 1.1 | -4.1 | 1.0 | -2.3 | 1.7 | |
Exports | -1.8 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 0.8 | -1.2 | 0.3 | -0.4 | 21.6 | 9.7 | |
  |
Supply Indicators | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Industrial Production (Volume) | -8.8 | -14.0 | -7.8 | -9.0 | -8.5 | -12.3 | -6.2 | -4.7 | -7.5 | -9.1 | -1.6 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 50.9 | 51.2 | 51.3 | 52.1 | 51.9 | 51.8 | 52.1 | 51.4 | 51.7 | 52.1 | 52.3 | |
Business Outlook (Index) | 43.0 | 37.9 | 43.3 | 39.5 | 39.3 | 30.1 | 27.2 | 35.2 | 40.5 | 37.3 | 40.2 | |
Electricity Production | 2.0 | 1.8 | 9.4 | 2.1 | 5.4 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 6.7 | 10.2 | 3.9 | 5.7 | |
Port Cargo Handled | 1.3 | 1.7 | 7.1 | 0.0 | 3.8 | 1.7 | 6.0 | 6.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | -3.0 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CPI Inflation | 3.0 | 3.2 | 2.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 1.3 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.6 | |
Policy rate (%) | 4.75 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.50 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 3.75 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | 0.5 | 0.3 | -0.1 | -0.6 | -0.8 | -0.5 | -0.1 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.8 | |
Broad Money (M3) | 7.3 | 6.1 | 7.0 | 6.4 | 6.6 | 6.9 | 6.3 | 7.7 | 8.5 | 9.8 | 11.4 | |
Credit Growth | 11.5 | 12.8 | 10.6 | 10.5 | 11.6 | 10.5 | 10.3 | 8.6 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 12.4 | |
Non-performing Loans (%) | | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.7 | |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 5.6 | 5.0 | 5.3 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 5.2 | 5.1 | 5.4 | 4.5 | 5.3 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | -0.9 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -1.5 | -2.6 | -2.6 | -3.0 | -1.9 | -1.1 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | -9.8 | -9.3 | -9.9 | -9.1 | -9.1 | -8.4 | -9.1 | -9.0 | -9.6 | -9.0 | -9.3 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | 1.7 | 3.1 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 2.6 | 1.2 | 1.6 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | 0.7 | -0.1 | 1.2 | 1.9 | 0.4 | -0.6 | -0.7 | 2.6 | 2.6 | 1.3 | 0.0 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 8.8 | 8.8 | 9.0 | 9.1 | 9.1 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.5 | 9.6 | 9.8 | 9.7 | |
REER | 6.3 | 5.5 | 6.3 | 6.0 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 2.9 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 5.4 |
|
t-10 |
t-9 |
t-8 |
t-7 |
t-6 |
t-5 |
t-4 |
t-3 |
t-2 |
t-1 |
t |
Real GDP | 4.2 | 4.4 | 4.0 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 3.2 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.6 | 1.6 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Retail Sales | 7.8 | 9.2 | 13.5 | 10.1 | 7.1 | 0.6 | -3.6 | -1.1 | -3.3 | -4.5 | -3.6 | |
Consumer Confidence | 79.2 | 77.7 | 76.4 | 75.0 | 73.6 | 72.2 | 70.7 | 69.1 | 68.3 | 67.3 | 64.8 | |
Motor Vehicle Sales | 8.5 | 8.7 | 3.7 | -2.1 | -1.1 | -6.9 | -14.1 | -11.3 | -16.2 | -21.4 | -8.2 | |
Visitor Arrivals | -0.6 | 3.2 | -0.4 | 1.3 | 4.7 | 7.4 | 10.1 | 12.5 | 5.9 | 2.5 | 2.5 | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | 8.0 | 9.5 | 7.4 | 4.4 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 5.0 | -11.0 | -18.4 | -14.0 | -18.0 | |
FDI Approved ytd | -8.3 | -33.4 | -36.0 | 11.8 | 1.4 | 6.3 | 10.7 | 41.8 | -8.4 | -16.2 | 10.3 | |
Private Investment Index | -0.6 | -1.0 | -0.9 | -5.2 | 0.8 | -5.8 | -2.8 | -4.6 | -7.5 | -3.7 | -8.1 | |
Capital Goods Imports | -3.2 | 3.0 | -4.6 | -12.0 | 6.7 | -14.8 | -7.1 | -3.2 | -15.5 | -8.1 | -2.1 | |
Exports | -3.4 | -1.4 | -7.7 | -6.2 | -3.9 | -8.8 | -7.7 | -12.0 | -15.4 | -9.2 | -1.0 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
VAPI | -2.5 | 1.5 | -3.2 | -5.1 | -3.2 | -4.4 | -5.0 | -8.0 | -8.0 | -4.4 | -4.6 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 51.0 | 50.7 | 50.6 | 50.3 | 50.0 | 50.6 | 50.0 | 49.3 | 50.1 | 49.9 | 49.5 | |
Thai Industry Sentiment (Index) | 95.0 | 95.9 | 94.5 | 93.5 | 92.8 | 92.1 | 91.2 | 92.3 | 91.7 | 92.2 | 90.2 | |
Electricity Production | 4.8 | 11.2 | 8.4 | 4.9 | 4.2 | 1.3 | -0.4 | 3.3 | 0.6 | -3.3 | 5.7 | |
Cement Consumption | -4.9 | -10.6 | -3.8 | -3.6 | 2.7 | 2.8 | -5.4 | 1.1 | -4.7 | -3.4 | -2.5 | |
Port Cargo Handled | 10.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 2.9 | -2.4 | 1.4 | 1.7 | -2.3 | -1.5 | -4.9 | -76.3 | |
  |
Domestic Stability | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CPI Inflation | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 0.7 | |
Policy rate (%) | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.00 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | |
Broad Money | 3.8 | 4.1 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 4.7 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 3.6 | 3.7 | |
Credit Growth | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 1.1 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.3 | |
Non-performing Loans (%) | 5.6 | 5.2 | 3.9 | 2.9 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.3 | 2.7 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 1.1 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | 9.3 | 9.7 | 9.6 | 9.3 | 8.6 | 6.5 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 6.9 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | 6.7 | 7.0 | 5.1 | 6.0 | 7.7 | 9.8 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 5.9 | 4.2 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | 0.3 | -1.2 | 1.7 | 3.7 | 4.9 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 1.7 | 3.4 | 3.8 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | -0.2 | -1.5 | 2.0 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 1.2 | -0.4 | -3.6 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 11.2 | 11.1 | 11.1 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.4 | 12.8 | |
REER | 3.0 | 4.2 | 6.0 | 8.5 | 7.8 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 3.8 | 0.2 |
|
t-10 |
t-9 |
t-8 |
t-7 |
t-6 |
t-5 |
t-4 |
t-3 |
t-2 |
t-1 |
t |
Real GDP (ytd) | 5.7 | 6.4 | 6.9 | 7.4 | 7.1 | 7.0 | 7.1 | 6.8 | 6.8 | 7.0 | 7.0 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Retail Sales (ytd) | 11.9 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 11.8 | 11.8 | 11.9 | 10.2 | 8.3 | |
Visitor Arrivals (ytd) | 7.6 | 8.8 | 7.5 | 7.9 | 8.7 | 10.8 | 13.0 | 15.4 | 16.2 | 32.8 | 4.8 | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | 9.2 | 8.8 | 8.3 | 5.8 | 5.6 | 6.5 | 8.5 | 5.6 | 5.4 | 6.6 | 6.8 | |
Foreign Direct Investment (ytd) | 50.4 | 38.7 | -37.2 | -37.4 | -32.3 | -22.3 | -14.6 | -7.0 | -6.8 | 454.1 | 104.7 | |
State Investment (ytd) | 3.6 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 4.2 | 4.7 | 5.4 | 5.6 | 9.7 | 17.5 | |
Capital Goods Imports (Proxy) | 24.6 | 8.9 | 3.2 | 9.1 | 15.2 | 10.6 | 6.2 | 5.5 | 22.5 | -17.8 | 19.4 | |
Exports | 10.3 | 9.4 | 7.4 | 11.1 | 10.4 | 10.7 | 7.3 | 4.7 | 14.0 | -17.4 | 34.0 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Industrial Production (IPI) | 9.3 | 10.2 | 9.0 | 9.8 | 10.5 | 10.4 | 9.8 | 5.5 | 6.2 | -5.5 | 23.7 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 52.5 | 52.0 | 52.5 | 52.6 | 51.4 | 50.5 | 50.0 | 51.0 | 50.8 | 50.6 | 49.0 | |
IPI: Electricity | 12.4 | 10.3 | 7.5 | 10.5 | 9.9 | 10.6 | 9.7 | 11.0 | 3.3 | -3.5 | 22.5 | |
Freight Carried | 4.3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 3.0 | 6.7 | 7.0 | |
  |
Domestic Stability | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CPI Inflation | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.2 | 2.4 | 2.3 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 3.5 | 5.2 | 6.4 | 5.4 | |
Policy rate (%) | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.25 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | 4.00 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | 0.7 | 0.9 | 1.1 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.1 | -0.1 | |
Broad Money (M2) | 16.6 | 14.4 | 14.0 | 14.3 | 15.4 | 16.1 | 13.1 | 12.7 | 10.9 | 10.5 | 12.2 | |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 2.3 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.2 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | 0.2 | -8.3 | -5.4 | -1.8 | -0.6 | 6.6 | 3.5 | 4.0 | 2.4 | 4.0 | 1.7 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | 0.3 | -0.1 | 0.3 | 0.8 | 5.4 | 5.1 | 6.9 | 4.9 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 2.3 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | 3.6 | 3.6 | 5.5 | 18.5 | 14.5 | 2.6 | -1.3 | -2.7 | 12.4 | 3.1 | 7.6 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | -0.6 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.3 | -0.3 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.1 | 0.0 | -0.3 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | 3.5 |
|
t-10 |
t-9 |
t-8 |
t-7 |
t-6 |
t-5 |
t-4 |
t-3 |
t-2 |
t-1 |
t |
Real GDP | 3.9 | 3.5 | 3.4 | 4.5 | 3.4 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.4 | -2.8 | -2.9 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Retail Sales (Vol) | -0.8 | -4.9 | -1.8 | -7.6 | -13.1 | -25.3 | -20.3 | -26.4 | -25.4 | -21.1 | -23.0 | |
Retail Sales (Motor Vehicle, Vol) | 1.6 | -6.3 | -0.2 | -8.4 | -5.4 | -16.2 | -16.1 | -20.0 | -12.2 | -4.7 | -20.9 | |
Visitor Arrivals | 17.3 | 5.2 | 19.5 | 8.5 | -4.8 | -39.1 | -34.2 | -43.7 | -55.9 | -51.5 | -52.7 | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | 12.9 | 9.2 | 9.4 | -2.9 | 0.0 | 1.5 | 12.2 | 11.0 | 10.0 | 8.3 | 9.3 | |
Foreign Direct Investment | 39.6 | 66.9 | -64.7 | -3.1 | 28.5 | -62.1 | 53.3 | -45.5 | -22.7 | -222.8 | -13.1 | |
Capital Goods Imports | 2.5 | -2.6 | -5.3 | -12.3 | -8.1 | -14.0 | -11.4 | -17.6 | -5.5 | -7.8 | -21.5 | |
Domestic Exports | 9.6 | -3.7 | -2.8 | -6.1 | 16.8 | 4.2 | 1.2 | -9.5 | -8.3 | 12.5 | -13.8 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Industrial Production | -0.1 | -0.9 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 1.4 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 48.4 | 46.9 | 47.9 | 43.8 | 40.8 | 41.5 | 39.3 | 38.5 | 42.1 | 46.8 | 46.8 | |
Business Situation (Index) | 6.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 8.0 | 6.0 | 2.0 | -12.0 | -1.0 | -8.0 | -25.0 | -22.0 | |
Electricity Production | -2.8 | -14.3 | 5.4 | -1.3 | 4.6 | 15.3 | -8.0 | -13.8 | -4.3 | -5.1 | 4.3 | |
Cargo Handled | -11.2 | -6.1 | 9.8 | 5.4 | -1.1 | 5.9 | 10.4 | 9.5 | 10.3 | -0.7 | 2.8 | |
  |
Domestic Stability | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CPI Inflation | 2.1 | 2.9 | 2.8 | 3.3 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.1 | 3.0 | 2.9 | 1.4 | |
Policy rate (%) | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.75 | 2.50 | 2.25 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 2.49 | 2.00 | 2.00 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | -0.6 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.1 | -0.4 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.5 | -0.5 | |
Broad Money (M2) | 3.9 | 2.1 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.8 | 3.3 | 2.8 | 4.1 | 4.4 | 2.8 | 2.3 | |
Credit Growth | 3.1 | 0.5 | 3.1 | 3.3 | 3.6 | 5.1 | 6.3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 6.7 | 6.4 | |
Non-performing Loans (%) | 1.2 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.5 | |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 3.4 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | 3.7 | 4.1 | 4.7 | 4.6 | 4.1 | 3.7 | 3.2 | 3.7 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 6.0 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | -15.1 | -18.2 | -16.4 | -15.9 | -15.6 | -14.7 | -11.7 | -11.5 | -11.3 | -11.4 | -11.4 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | 1.0 | 0.8 | 1.8 | 2.8 | -1.1 | -1.6 | -1.7 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 2.7 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | 0.0 | 0.0 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 0.7 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 8.8 | 8.8 | 8.9 | 9.1 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 9.2 | 9.4 | 9.6 | |
REER | 6.2 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 3.0 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | 1.7 |
|
t-10 |
t-9 |
t-8 |
t-7 |
t-6 |
t-5 |
t-4 |
t-3 |
t-2 |
t-1 |
t |
Real GDP | 2.8 | 3.9 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 2.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 2.3 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Retail Sales (Real) | 2.4 | 1.4 | 3.4 | 1.2 | -0.3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.9 | 3.7 | 4.5 | 1.8 | |
Consumer Sentiment Index | 101.7 | 97.9 | 97.6 | 95.9 | 92.4 | 97.0 | 98.6 | 101.0 | 100.5 | 104.2 | 96.9 | |
Motor Vehicle Sales | 2.2 | 3.4 | -2.1 | 2.8 | -5.3 | -3.3 | -8.0 | -7.7 | -2.7 | -24.2 | -23.7 | |
Visitor Arrivals | 12.4 | 22.8 | 20.0 | 15.1 | 15.4 | 14.0 | 14.2 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 10.0 | 15.2 | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | 17.0 | 12.9 | 16.4 | 14.8 | 15.4 | 13.1 | 12.5 | 12.0 | 11.8 | 12.5 | | |
Foreign Direct Investment | -9.1 | -11.2 | 49.8 | 27.9 | 88.5 | -13.6 | -17.8 | -35.7 | -38.1 | 4.7 | 27.9 | |
Index of Equipment Investment | -15.9 | -4.6 | -8.5 | -7.1 | -3.0 | -2.2 | -0.4 | -1.6 | 1.1 | 11.2 | -3.8 | |
Capital Goods Imports | 0.6 | 0.6 | -8.1 | -0.2 | -2.2 | 0.0 | -11.6 | -5.9 | 0.9 | -6.6 | 12.0 | |
Exports | -2.1 | -9.8 | -13.8 | -11.1 | -14.0 | -11.9 | -15.0 | -14.5 | -5.3 | -6.5 | 4.3 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Industrial Production (IPI) | -1.0 | 0.7 | 1.4 | -0.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | 1.6 | 3.9 | -0.5 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 50.2 | 48.4 | 47.5 | 47.3 | 49.0 | 48.0 | 48.4 | 49.4 | 50.1 | 50.1 | 48.7 | |
Business Conditions (Index) | 91.8 | 90.0 | 90.0 | 86.7 | 86.6 | 88.4 | 89.4 | 91.7 | 89.6 | 89.5 | 83.1 | |
IPI: Electricity | -0.1 | 1.8 | 3.1 | -2.7 | -5.4 | -3.0 | 4.3 | -2.4 | -1.7 | -2.4 | -5.6 | |
Cargo Handled | 6.3 | -1.0 | -8.5 | 1.0 | -2.1 | 7.3 | -6.8 | -1.1 | -2.8 | 4.8 | -5.8 | |
  |
Domestic Stability | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CPI Inflation | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.0 | -0.4 | 0.0 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 1.5 | 1.1 | |
Policy rate (%) | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.75 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | 1.25 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.8 | |
Broad Money (M2) | 6.9 | 6.8 | 6.3 | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.8 | 7.2 | 7.1 | 8.6 | 7.9 | 7.7 | |
Credit Growth | 6.0 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.2 | 5.9 | 5.8 | 5.9 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.1 | 6.3 | |
Non-performing Loans (%) | | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 3.3 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | 4.8 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.6 | 4.2 | 3.7 | 3.6 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | 11.6 | 10.8 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 7.8 | 9.8 | 12.7 | 14.5 | 10.5 | 5.8 | 6.4 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | -0.4 | -0.7 | -0.5 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.1 | 0.8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 0.4 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | -1.9 | -5.4 | -3.7 | -3.1 | -2.3 | -1.7 | -0.5 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 1.4 | -2.4 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 9.6 | 9.7 | 9.7 | 9.8 | 9.8 | |
REER | -2.7 | -6.2 | -4.9 | -4.6 | -7.7 | -6.7 | -5.5 | -5.5 | -5.8 | -4.5 | -5.7 |
|
t-10 |
t-9 |
t-8 |
t-7 |
t-6 |
t-5 |
t-4 |
t-3 |
t-2 |
t-1 |
t |
Real GDP | 3.4 | 5.1 | 4.5 | 4.8 | 4.9 | 3.0 | 1.3 | 1.1 | 0.2 | 0.7 | 0.8 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Retail Sales (constant) | -9.6 | 0.0 | -1.6 | -2.3 | -9.5 | -1.8 | -4.1 | -2.6 | -4.9 | -5.2 | -4.4 | |
Motor Vehicle Registrations | -1.1 | -15.0 | -41.2 | 32.5 | -14.2 | -9.7 | -25.7 | -25.0 | -29.7 | -39.1 | -6.8 | |
Visitor Arrivals | -1.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 4.0 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 4.3 | 9.0 | 7.5 | 3.9 | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | -3.9 | -2.2 | -1.8 | 8.4 | 1.6 | 5.2 | 5.0 | 10.4 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | |
Foreign Direct Investment | -55.1 | 112.6 | 22.3 | -32.8 | 104.5 | -14.8 | -22.6 | 15.3 | 16.0 | 5.0 | 35.5 | |
Net Invest Commit (Manuf) | 165.0 | -70.8 | 35.7 | -74.8 | -5.2 | -14.8 | 9.2 | 822.5 | -29.6 | -89.8 | 286.9 | |
Capital Goods Imports (Proxy) | 6.4 | -0.7 | -7.7 | -7.5 | -9.3 | -8.0 | -2.8 | -3.5 | 1.5 | -3.8 | 15.9 | |
NODX | -10.1 | -16.3 | -17.5 | -11.5 | -9.0 | -8.1 | -12.5 | -5.9 | 2.4 | -3.3 | 3.0 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Industrial Pdn (Excl. Biomed Mfg) | 0.6 | -7.3 | -1.1 | -4.1 | -10.8 | 1.7 | -9.5 | -3.8 | -0.8 | -9.6 | -3.2 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 50.3 | 49.9 | 49.6 | 49.8 | 49.9 | 49.5 | 49.6 | 49.8 | 50.1 | 50.3 | 48.7 | |
Business Expectations (Index) | 9.0 | 6.0 | 10.0 | 24.0 | 5.0 | 2.0 | -2.0 | 1.0 | -14.0 | -2.0 | 1.0 | |
Electricity Production | 1.5 | 2.6 | 2.0 | -0.2 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 6.0 | 0.7 | 2.8 | 0.2 | -0.1 | |
Cement Demand | -17.2 | -2.2 | -9.4 | -6.2 | -8.2 | 2.3 | -4.8 | -2.1 | 5.5 | -4.8 | 11.4 | |
Sea Cargo Handled | 4.5 | 4.6 | 3.0 | -0.3 | -6.9 | -1.1 | -1.8 | 1.1 | -2.0 | -1.7 | -1.0 | |
  |
Domestic Stability | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CPI Inflation | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | |
Policy rate (3m SIBOR, %) | 1.95 | 2.01 | 2.00 | 2.00 | 1.88 | 1.88 | 1.81 | 1.77 | 1.77 | 1.71 | 1.69 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | 1.5 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 1.1 | |
Broad Money (M2) | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.5 | 5.4 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 4.8 | 4.8 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 5.8 | |
Credit Growth | 2.2 | 1.4 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 2.2 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.0 | |
Non-performing Loans (%) | 1.4 | 2.0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.9 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 1.3 | |
Res Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.1 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 2.9 | 3.0 | 3.1 | 3.1 | 3.2 | 3.2 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | 16.5 | 18.7 | 15.0 | 15.6 | 19.0 | 21.7 | 16.9 | 15.1 | 20.8 | 20.2 | 16.3 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | 7.8 | 7.9 | 6.8 | 7.2 | 7.3 | 8.4 | 9.3 | 8.7 | 8.3 | 5.7 | 4.3 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | 1.0 | -9.2 | -7.4 | -8.1 | 2.6 | -0.6 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 2.5 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | 0.0 | -1.2 | -0.6 | -0.4 | -1.0 | -1.2 | -0.6 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 1.4 | -2.1 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 9.5 | 8.6 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 8.9 | 9.0 | 9.2 | 9.2 | 9.3 | 9.3 | 9.4 | |
REER | 1.2 | 1.0 | 0.5 | -0.2 | -0.9 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.4 | -0.5 | -0.9 | -2.4 |
|
t-10 |
t-9 |
t-8 |
t-7 |
t-6 |
t-5 |
t-4 |
t-3 |
t-2 |
t-1 |
t |
Real GDP | 2.9 | 2.5 | 3.4 | 3.5 | 3.2 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 1.8 | 1.8 | 2.4 | 2.9 | |
  |
Demand Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Retail Sales | 0.8 | 4.0 | 1.9 | 3.5 | 6.6 | 4.0 | 2.7 | 4.2 | 5.1 | 0.4 | 0.9 | |
Consumer Confidence | 85.3 | 79.5 | 79.8 | 81.5 | 79.7 | 80.9 | 81.0 | 80.4 | 84.3 | 85.3 | 83.9 | |
Motor Vehicle Sales | 2.5 | -11.1 | -3.0 | 2.9 | -3.9 | 33.5 | 3.5 | 31.5 | 32.1 | -8.2 | 20.2 | |
Visitor Arrivals | 6.5 | 24.7 | 23.5 | 8.8 | 15.9 | 8.1 | -5.0 | -2.2 | -2.8 | 1.6 | -6.3 | |
Government disbursement (ytd) | 9.0 | 8.7 | 2.6 | 3.6 | 3.8 | 3.8 | 1.9 | 1.9 | 1.8 | 3.6 | 18.4 | |
Foreign Investment Approved | 331.1 | 232.1 | 115.8 | -84.4 | 359.7 | 110.6 | 141.7 | -21.0 | -66.3 | 192.8 | 116.8 | |
Capital Goods Imports | 3.9 | -1.1 | 20.7 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 18.6 | 12.5 | 17.6 | 38.5 | -7.7 | 42.0 | |
Exports | 1.6 | -0.9 | 5.6 | 1.5 | 4.8 | -3.3 | -1.3 | 1.9 | 2.5 | -10.0 | 21.8 | |
  |
Supply Conditions | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Industrial Production | -9.5 | 0.9 | -2.6 | -0.7 | 4.1 | 2.5 | -0.6 | -2.6 | 2.0 | 6.3 | -1.5 | |
Purchasing Manager (Index) | 51.7 | 48.2 | 48.1 | 48.0 | 48.2 | 50.0 | 51.1 | 54.9 | 56.2 | 51.3 | 52.7 | |
Mfg Sentiment (Index) | 95.9 | 94.6 | 94.6 | 93.1 | 95.0 | 95.9 | 94.6 | 92.1 | 93.3 | 96.4 | 94.2 | |
Electricity Consumption | -1.5 | -1.0 | -1.3 | -0.4 | -1.8 | -0.4 | -1.2 | 1.0 | -0.1 | -0.3 | -4.2 | |
Cargo Handled | 1.8 | 1.7 | -2.9 | -2.6 | -1.9 | -1.8 | -1.3 | -1.5 | -6.9 | 0.9 | -9.3 | |
  |
Domestic Stability | | | | | | | | | | | | |
CPI Inflation | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 1.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | |
Policy rate (%) | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | 1.375 | |
Real Interbank rate (%) | -0.4 | -0.3 | -0.2 | -0.1 | 0.0 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | |
Broad Money (M2) | 3.3 | 3.6 | 3.1 | 3.4 | 3.3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 4.6 | |
Credit Growth | 4.6 | 4.8 | 4.6 | 4.3 | 5.2 | 4.9 | 5.2 | 5.6 | 5.1 | 5.0 | 4.6 | |
Non-performing Loans (%) | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.2 | |
Unemployment Rate (%) | 3.72 | 3.74 | 3.76 | 3.74 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.74 | 3.73 | 3.73 | 3.72 | 3.71 | |
  |
External Resilience | | | | | | | | | | | | |
Current Account (% GDP) | 14.2 | 13.4 | 13.0 | 14.5 | 14.6 | 13.3 | 11.4 | 12.0 | 11.7 | 12.0 | 10.9 | |
Trade bal (3m rolling, USD bn) | 5.6 | 4.4 | 5.2 | 6.0 | 7.4 | 6.6 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 4.2 | 4.2 | 3.7 | |
3m % chg in FX reserves | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 1.2 | |
3m % chg in FX rate (vs. USD) | -0.1 | -1.4 | -1.4 | -0.7 | -0.5 | 0.7 | 1.2 | 2.9 | 2.6 | 2.2 | 1.0 | |
Import cover (no. of months) | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.7 | 19.9 | 20.0 | 20.0 | 20.2 | 20.2 | 20.1 | 20.5 | 20.0 | |
REER | -0.9 | -0.9 | -1.7 | -1.9 | -1.9 | -0.6 | -0.1 | -0.4 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 1.5 |